Do the results of yesterday's Nebraska gubernatorial Republican primary vote remind you of the 1984 Orange Bowl? They should. In 1984, Dr. Tom Osborne led the Cornhuskers to a 31-30 DEFEAT at the hands of the Miami Hurricanes. It was a real heartbreaker for the Husker faithful everywhere, even though Dr. Tom did the right thing by going for the win instead of a tie at the end of the game. Of course, Dr. Tom later parlayed that agony in the Husker Nation into 3 national championships before he retired from coaching, citing heart problems and the need to reduce the stress in his life as his reasons.
After a short absence from public attention, he thereupon ran for and won the US House of Representatives seat for Nebraska's Third District. He kept the seat for 3 terms, winning by gaudy 80-90% plus margins of victory each time.
He apparently got tired of being in Congress, however, for he threw his hat into the ring for this year's race for the Nebraska governorship. [Much better to be 1 out of 1, and to be totally in charge, than 1 of 435. It's a coaching mentality.--Ed] Early predictions had him winning by a wide margin (after all, he's a god in this college-football-mad state), especially once sitting Governor Mike Johanns accepted Dubya's offer to become US Secretary of Agriculture. That in turn made Lt. Gov. Dave Heineman the unelected incumbent governor. The "smart money" in the urban areas of the state figured Heineman had further reduced his choices of winning an election to that post after he picked a lame design for the Nebraska state quarter (Chimney Rock) instead of doing a superb and original thing by picking the Chief Standing Bear design. On the other hand, the Chimney Rock design did pander to the voters in the mostly rural Third District, Dr. Tom's own stomping grounds.
Geuss what happened? I can hear Keith Jackson now: "Whoa, Nelly!" Heineman just beat Dr. Tom in the Republican primary. It wasn't particularly close, either. The most recent results I saw had Heineman leading by over 12,000 votes.
What the heck happened? Well . . . for one thing, Dr. Tom ran a totally uninspired campaign. His broadcast ads came down to "I've been in Congress; I know the issues; I'm a true fiscal conservative; I have a plan; I have integrity; you can trust me." Yawn. Even though these claims may all be true, I am sure I am not the only person whose response was: (1) what the heck does having been in Congress have to do with being Nebraska's Governor? (2) what the heck IS your plan? Details were never revealed in the ads. Since I couldn't bear to watch the pre-primary debates, I never did find out precisely what Dr. Tom intended to do once in office.
Dr. Tom's campaign staff also screwed up. Dr. Tom pledged more than once that he'd not say anything bad about his opponents in the primary [the most enlightened and useful promise he made.--Ed] but someone on his staff hired an out-of-state telephone polling company which did not know that. It used "push polling" questions in its calls to well over 1200 Nebraska Republicans--questions that cast Gov. Heineman in a very negative light according to the unappreciative recipients of the calls. Dr. Tom apologized and fired the company once he learned about it, but damage had already been done.
Gov. Heineman also ran a virtually flawless campaign. He timed the majority of his broadcast ads to air within the 10 days or so before the election; he stressed the fact that he was the incumbent [never underestimate the power of incumbency . . . which bodes well for Ben Nelson this fall in his US Senate race against multimillionaire Pete Ricketts, who spent around $5 million of his own funds in the run-up to the primary alone, and who is the phoniest "man of the people" I've seen in a long time.--Ed]; he stressed the things he'd accomplished already during his short time in office, like getting TAX CUTS passed; and he looked friendly and at ease with everyone, unlike Dr. Tom, who tends to come across as being somewhat aloof, even when he's at his most personable. Furthermore, many people questioned Dr. Tom's ability to carry out the duties of the office, given his history of heart problems.
There was also a great backlash, in my humble opinion, from Nebraska Republicans who resented the number of prominent Nebraska Democrats (like Warren Buffett) who said they were switching their party registrations to Republican precisely so they could vote for Dr. Tom in the primary. [There are no open primaries here. In the partisan races, you are allowed to vote only among the candidates of the same party as your registration . . . and if it's a partisan race, and no one from your party is running, you're SOL.--Ed] No one else that I know of has mentioned this yet, but I am sure the diehard Nebraska Republicans resented the impression that their primary was being hijacked . . . and they voted for Heineman just to keep the Nebraska Republican Party of "true" Republicans, by "true" Republicans, and for "true" Republicans.
I shouldn't be surprised, though I am. Nebraska, for all its vaunted "red state-edness," more than once chose Bob Kerrey to be first its Governor and then one of its US Senators (until he bailed out on us, that is), and in the past has voted in other noted Democrats from William Jennings Bryan to Frank Morrison to Edward Zorinsky.
Nebraskans aren't so much Republicans as Populists. And they do like to confound the pundits. So for Dr. Tom it must feel like January, 1984 all over again, and that can't feel good. For him.
But now the real fun begins . . . because does anybody give the Democratic candidate, David Hahn, a snowball's chance in Hell? Does anyone other than some of us Democratic party junkies even know who he is?
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